ROMANIA: AEI: A forecast of the price of electricity after capping expires
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Slowly, the electricity price offers for the post-cap period are starting to appear in the mailboxes and on ANRE’s price comparator. The price offers appearing in the market are currently between 1.03 – 1.43 lei/kWh with VAT included for the post capping period.
This interval will most likely be the interval in which the next offers from other electricity suppliers to household customers will also appear.
The electricity costs of a supplier that supplies electricity in Bucharest, taking into account the average prices traded on OPCOM, with delivery in the months of the following year, are between 0.4818 – 0.51864 lei/KWh, so if we add the tariffs, taxes , excises and commercial margin, the average cost for the following year would reach a level of 1.0365 lei/KWh with VAT included (provided taxes, excises, tariffs do not change). This calculation did not take into account the costs of the imbalances that in 2024, at some points, were based on the highest prices in Europe.
Thus, on April 1, 2025, the price of electricity to the final consumer cannot be lower than the cost of 1.03 and prices will probably be in the range of 1.03 – 1.15 lei/kWh with VAT included.
This means a decrease in the price of electricity by approx. 21% for consumers who consumed more than 255 kWh/month and an increase in the price of electricity by 51% for those who consumed below 100 kWh/month (an average increase of approx. 17.6 lei/month on the electricity bill). Maintaining an electricity price ceiling of 0.68 lei/kWh means selling below costs for suppliers, i.e. the risk of malfunctions in the energy supply or the need for money from the state budget to subsidize these prices, i.e. increases in fees and taxes – which is actually at the disadvantage of the poor population – https://asociatiaenergiainteligenta.ro/plafonarea-pretului-la-gaze-nu-este-pentru-cei-saraci/.
